[Mkguild] MMRR: The Magnificent Mechanical Celestial Almanac

[Rimme the Weasel]

My longest section yet.

----

It was the noise, as much as the rush of cold air, that abruptly woke
Gillie. She rolled to one side and brushed her hair aside as she squinted
at Timios's face in the pre-dawn light.

"I'm so sorry to wake you, but plans have changed," Timios said as he
hoisted himself into the wagon. There was a eager gleam in his eye as he
surveyed the corners of his packaged machine. "Grab that side, Oison." He
bent down and took one end while another man grabbed the other end. "Achem,
keep it steady!"

"What's going on?" Gillie looked between the three men as she grabbed for
her coat.

"Gather my things for me. I'm changing wagons."

"What for? Wait!" Gillie pulled on her shoes while Timios helped steady the
package into Gallus's arms below as Oison and Achem descended the wagon.

"Misha's not the only person interested in mechanical devices. At least two
automaton guilds are here! I told you when we started that we had to follow
where destiny took us."

"That was about my brother, Timios! Are you--"

"I haven't forgotten your brother, Gillie. I promised we would find him. I
also promised to bankroll our journey, and while I'd hoped to find
investors at Metamor, there's plenty of rich folk here who would be
interested in world affairs. Steady on, Gallus. Gwayn intends to follow the
crowds, and that's what I intend to do. If you wish to continue to Metamor,
you're welcome to do so."

Gillie held her tongue, and instead grabbed the few other possession Timios
carried. Which amounted to a sack containing his spare clothes, a box of
spare gears and springs, a crowbar, and his coin purse. Everything else,
including his bag of tools, his paring knife, and his letters of
introduction, Timios carried on him. Timios had rarely ventured this far
from home, and had been convinced that the world had gotten more violent in
the years since his last voyage. Gossip always said as such, and Timios
always recorded every word.

Gillie took only a few seconds to catch back up, as Timios led the device
to the front of the other wagon. The leader of this caravan was already up,
half-dressed, with his chin freshly shaven. This must be Gwayn, Gillie
realized, as Gallus took his place beside him. Gwayn looked at the bundled
package up and down before coughing. "So, just this, then? What's in it?"

"This, my friend, is the future." He patted the cloth-wrapped package
affectionately. "The literal future. This collection of gears and springs
-- no magic required -- can predict the influence of the Lothanasi gods in
all parts of the world, and with it, the rise and fall of every nation in
the world."

Gwayn looked skeptical, but motioned at the canvas as he took his coat from
a bearded trapper beside him. Gillie guessed he was some kind of scout.

As Timios undid the ropes, Gallus spoke up. "I'm sorry, did you say it
predicts what the Lothanasi gods will do?"

"And the Daedra Lords, too."

"Even Klepnos? The demon of chaos?"

"Chaos is merely a word for massive change. It is, in fact, quite an easy
variable to account for, as you merely need to assign to it the rates at
which other variables change frequently."

"But that--" Gallus paused when Gillie gave him a sharp look. She knew it
was futile to argue with him. It was a foolhardy notion, but it was also
his pride and joy, and it was the one investment that Timios had sunk
everything into.

"The weather, too? Can it predict Dvalin's acts next week?" Achem asked.

"Next week, next year, even next century! This machine is the ultimate
celestial almanac. Everything from weather to war to revolution is foretold
by this simple machine. Imagine the world-changing consequences that such a
device could bring, if one could so perfectly predict the future. Not
through magic, or alchemy, but simple reason and calculation. Why, it is
the mechanical reincarnation of that great prophet Felix of Lee!"

He pulled off the sheet and unveiled the device. The overall structure was
like a large, broad grandfather clock, but with no pendulum, nor any glass
door to see its innards. He turned it so that the front of the device faced
Gwayn. On its front was a sheet of glass, in which was etched the three
known continents of the world: Galendor, the Southlands, and distant
Irombi. Behind this pane, on several narrow glass spindles rising from
above and below, were several tiny colored glass wheels. Behind these
wheels, the vaguest outlines of gears and springs could be seen. Through
some of these wheels could be seen some type of alchemical symbols, some of
which were clear and transparent, others were tinted through the colored
glass wheels. At the top, there was a display of the machine's current date
and year, which was currently set to March 7th, 708 -- the day after Gillie
had knocked on Timios's door, and asked him to undertake this journey.
Other symbols lined the edges of the device, a circle with bars like a
clock, and several locks. Two wheels were embedded on one side of the
machine, the lower one flat on its side against the machine, the other
wedged inside with only its edge exposed. On the other side was a small
chart that briefly explained the symbols and colors visible. Several tiny
doors lay on the back of the device, and it was these doors that Timios
opened and began pulling several knobs.

"Very impressive," Gwayn nodded at the many details. "I see you've left the
edges of the world here unexposed."

"Wastelands, mostly, and unimportant for our purposes. There is very little
that crosses the Western Oceans, or sails east to the shores of Fan Shaor.
The gods themselves are only interested in the ley lines on this side of
the world, and how their followers' actions atop them interact with them."

"March 7th, then?" Gwayn took a closer look. "So this is the state of the
world on March 7th?"

"It is the state of the gods' potential for influence over the world, and
through proper analysis of days before and to come, one can determine their
most likely path of action. For example, here in Metamor, this area is
empty, so it is not particularly favored by any one of these six gods. This
yellow spot in Marigund is marked by Dokorath, where his strength is
growing, meaning that he is less likely to grant favors here, but more
receptive to prayer and devotion. And down in Pyralis, this red patch of
Agemnos means that he is spending influence here, and his followers are
more likely to have their entreaties fulfilled. You can see how every area
has its own sphere of influence. Some areas have closer to certain gods
than others, which lends them particular stereotypes that are, in truth,
more nuanced than popular accounts would say."

"I know you keep saying that, influence and followings." Gwayn's eye was
still skeptical, though it seemed to appreciate the labor and skill that
went into designing the mechanical almanac. "What I don't see, and perhaps
you'll forgive me if I am unclear on Lightbringer theology, is that the
gods surely act on their own volition, their own whims and desires,
changing if individual priests can appeal to them, or anger them, placate
them, what have you. Instead of acting distant and predictable over long
stretches of time, like... well, like clockwork."

"A very astute observation, with two different components to it that I must
address. For yes, history is filled with examples of minor individuals who
appeared from obscurity to have great effects on the world. It is
impossible to predict every birth and death that could happen in this
world, and indeed my machine cannot predict such matters, such as where the
next hero will be born, or where a great battle may be fought. For it takes
into account the entire picture of the world, rather than individual
familes."

Gillie sat down on the log and massaged her legs. This would be a long
lecture for sure.

"You see, as often as we take it for granted that individual heroes have
great destinies, there is a reason why the prophets do not predict such
things, not the least of which that mere observance can impact behavior."
He opened a door behind them and strained to pull out a metal dowel.
"Excuse me, I've had to keep these bolted for travel. If you'll give me a
moment... The important thing to remember is, in any society, in a time of
crisis, someone will take it upon themselves to rise to power. It does not
matter whether it is a noble, a peasant, a priest, or a bordering king; it
cannot be predicted who will be the hero of prophecy. What matters is that
that someone ... oof ... will be the conduit for the gods' intentions, and
their individualities are ultimately interchangeable. Whether they do good
or ill is at the gods' discretion, and it is primarily the gods's influence
that decides the victors and losers.

"Which brings me to the second point, of how the actions of the gods can be
reduced to clockwork. To understand that, you have to think how the gods
would act." He finished pulling out a third rod, closed the panel, and
opened a lower panel to free the dowels below. "You are a merchant, Gwayn.
You have a certain order to your life, based upon the mechanisms of your
trade. Buy low, sell high. You will go wherever there is a good deal to buy
low, and transport your goods wherever they can be sold at high value. Your
route is unique to you, because you, like every merchant, have a different
pool of connections, and different knowledge of goods and prices, and so
your routes differ considerably from each other.

"The gods act similarly. They desire to take actions that will minimize the
cost to their own power, but maximize their gains. But they have a few
fundamental differences. Firstly, all eighteen of them have their own
domains, with their own means of acquiring power and using it. There is no
direct interference with each other, so that the world does not depend on
the random chance of which one wields their influence first.

"But secondly, just as important, is that each god has perfect knowledge of
their own domains. Every word of gossip is a power source to Samekkh, for
example; therefore, it is in his interest to know everything known by
everyone. So too does Dvalin know every rainstorm in the world, and
Nocturna every dream and nightmare. There are no secrets hidden from them.
Thus, every action they have ever taken, and will ever take, is able to
make the most optimal use of their powers for their domain. Anything that
will be expected to pay back to them, they will take those actions, and
will continue to make in the future.

"You see, it is well-known that the eighteen gods and goddesses operate on
a strictly transactional level. Their followers provide them with services
in order to boost their own power, which in turn decides what areas of the
world in order to expend their power to grow even more influence and gain
more followers. The Lightbringers may say that they are mercurial, but it
only appears that way to people who don't track their global affairs. It is
this aspect that my machine makes use of -- that while the Lightbringer
gods may act on their occasional whims, to spite individual transgressors
or reward certain acts of piety, that their grand designs are mainly driven
by simple predictable forces -- namely, of enlightened self-interest."

"You shouldn't refer to those Daedra Lords as 'gods', you know," Achem
warned. "Real gods, like the celestials, don't act like you describe. They
act in our best interests, not like the demons, who only care about power."

"Lightbringer priests would disagree with you, though some might tell you
differently. Now watch this. You may have noticed there are far fewer than
eighteen gods on each of these wheels. Well, I could only fit six to be
readable on one wheel, so I've designed this upper wheel here to cycle
through three sets of gods. You just need to pull THIS out..." He pulled a
lever from one end to the other, and the clock symbol switched to a double
cross. "And turn this wheel like so..." He pushed the upper wheel, and the
glass beads disappeared from view, to be replaced by a second set of beads
with their own colors and symbols. Metamor became covered with a yellow
patch, marked by a new god, while the other patches changed or disappeared
completely. The top line of symbols also changed, from six theological
signs to six different ones.

"Then what about when we die?" Achem persisted. "Our souls in the
afterlife, like Nocturna and Kammoloth? Is all of that just self-interest?
Or the healing gods like Akkala --"

"Nocturna's powers are limited to intangibles. She powers faith and belief,
like Kammaloth and Samekkh. That's why she's on the second wheel, with the
other 'cultural' powers. The next wheel covers the domestic world, with
gods like Akkala and Lilith. Yajiit, too, since the sun is a universal, and
fire's main impact is the individual hearth. Ah, but the first wheel is the
global wheel. This is where you want it set to see entire histories over
time."

"Which one is Tallakath in?" Oisom interrupted. "There was a plague here in
Metamor on that very day, caused by Tallakath."

"Was there? Oh... oh, I see." He looked at the two beads that covered the
area over Metamor. Both had a yellow tinge, but one was overlaid with the
symbol for Akkala, not Tallakath, so the chart said.

"Curious." He flipped open his black book and turned to one of the pages
inside. "You're right, there was a plague at that time. Do you know for
sure that it was Tallakath that caused it?"

"Yes, an idol of Tallakath was here."

"Ah, so it was not Tallakath himself who visited?" He closed the book,
apparently satisfied.

"No, but his presence was certainly felt. His power was used here..."

"This is a misconception I often have to correct," Timios tutted. "That
which we can visibly see are the SECONDARY actions of the gods, which are
indirectly caused by their PRIMARY actions, which are often hidden to us.
It is rare for a god to make a direct appearance in the world, and act as
the direct conduit of their powers. Just as the mages will impart their
powers into their tools, and use them to channel their magic, so too do the
gods create their own artifacts, at their own times and in their own
places, to maximize their powers at minimal cost elsewhere. It is these
artifacts, such as that idol of Tallakath, that channel the power of
Tallakath, well beyond what this machine may predict."

Achem scratched his head, while Oisom's face dropped. "You say it can
predict plagues, but it didn't."

"You have to see the WHOLE picture, before you can translate the gods'
effect on the world." He waved his black book. "All the knowledge, all the
details, all the things that are overlooked. The manner in which these
effects circulate is as essential to understand as their creation."

"So, you need that book to translate the machine? How much is that?"

"This? It is not for sale. Or rather, it's too incomplete to be for sale
yet. But imagine. With proper infrastructure, an intelligence network, and
regular pursuit and record of knowledge, and it could change everything we
know about the world." Timios popped open a front panel, revealing the
dense network of gears inside, shrouded in darkness. "You see these? Every
one of these gears has been especially calibrated to line up with the major
effects of the gods with precise dates and locations that we know about.
The calling of Lucien, the treaty of Quenardya, the founding of the
Weathermongers, the forging of the Werspergh, the prospering of Lik, among
other things."

He closed the door, reset the gears to the first position, and began
winding it forwards in time, towards April and beyond. "It has taken me
years to calculate these formulae, to see how one change in one nation can
lead to its effect on another. Some necessary assumptions were made, but if
the gaps can be filled in, and the numbers refined, it is fairly
straightforward to recalibrate the machine to match the data." A slight
wistfulness came to his voice. "The formulae shouldn't have to be changed
now. Everything has been accounted for, now."

"What about a change in the ley lines?" Achem asked. "If some power were to
change their layout or their strength, would that have an effect? Or a
shift in the continents? And what about migrations of people?"

"The ley lines, and the land, are eternal and unchanging. That much I am
confident about. People assume the past was more magical and mystical than
it really is. Most of it, all of it, is superstition and nostalgia. As for
the people, well, I remain firm that the overall proportions of people in
the world stay constant throughout history. People move in, people move
out. The gods will take whoever is there."

"These are a lot of assumptions you're making."

"The big picture remains the same. I know very well the risks in getting
lost in details. Nevertheless..."

The machine suddenly came to a halt. The gears clanged as he tried to push
forward, but to no avail.

"Ah, excuse me." He opened up a panel at the bottom and reached in. He
gripped something along the side of the wall and pushed upwards. With a
loud clunk, the gears moved forward. The date crept over to May 15th, 708.

"I've made hundreds of tests, and checked my math dozens of times, but it
keeps getting stuck on that date. I had to install a special release bar
inside, just for it. Now, see how on Kammo'kela, how vast his influence is
over the area?" He switched functions and turned the top wheel to show off
Kammoloth's strength and influence, before turning it back and advancing a
day, repeating the process. "See how, the next day, it holds over certain
areas that worship him, especially Metamor and Sathmore? That is this
machine's primary strength, in predicting the favorability of one's
devotions."

"There is a contradiction here," the bearded man spoke up for the first
time, as Timios returned to moving forwards in time. "You say that
individual actions don't matter to the gods, or the daedra, that they
behave according to the big picture. Yet you also say this machine has some
sort of knowledge one can use to affect their behavior. So either this
machine does nothing at all for you, and makes no change in what the gods
have already planned, or it makes you their master and manipulator. Which
is it?"

"As I said before, individual heroes arise from the muck of society all the
time, all too often by chance or circumstance. Only a few have ever planned
their own destinies. This machine," he pointed dramatically towards Gwayn,
"can make YOU the hero."

"And you were going to sell this to Misha Brightleaf," Gillie added,
waiting for that opportunity to add her own voice.

"Misha Brightleaf?!" Gallus shot his head up.

"You think Misha would dare tamper with the gods' wills?!" Oisom added.

"Misha is a powerful wielder of might and magic," Timios replied, as he
finally stopped on June 19th. "Knowledge of what the gods anticipate could
prove useful to his activities."

"Misha may be a hero and an artificer, but he isn't a mystic. He also isn't
a Lothanasi," Achem pointed out. "He doesn't care what the gods are up to."

"Misha is a strategist. I have also heard reports that he is... sensitive
about oversights in his knowledge. Any knowledge he might have to gain, he
will pursue."

"Timios, you may be a very smart man, but you have clearly miscalculated
Misha's personality," Gallus said. "Perhaps the head of intelligence would
be interested, or one of the archmages, or even the high priestess herself,
but..."

"Raven hin'Elric?!" Oisom gaped. "If Misha wouldn't tamper with the gods,
you think the Ice Queen would? She'd smash this thing to pieces if she
caught wind of it."

"This machine is quite valuable," Timios insisted. "I have no doubt someone
will pay for it."

"Very dearly for it," Oisom sniped.

"I intend to start selling to the crowd here. I'm only seeking one investor
to buy this machine and the exclusive rights to it. If you would permit me
to set up beside you, I believe the crowds we draw could mutually benefit
us," he said to Gwayn.

"My wares are simple, compared to yours," Gwayn said, with a thoughtful
look. "I sell to ladies and dandies with particular palates and handfuls of
cash. This machine of yours requires lots of thought and plenty of cash,
which wouldn't benefit me at all. However, I could benefit from a few
wealthy stragglers, if you can lure them over. Just set up about twenty
feet between us, and we'll make it work."

"Fair deal, sir. Much obliged," Timios shook Gwayn's hand.

Gillie quietly sat the bag of Timios's belongings inside Gwayn's wagon.
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